Steam HW survey indicates exponential growth of VR


#1

While an occasional cursory glance at the Steam hardware survey may seem to show the growth in the number of HMDs is linear, this article at Road to VR shows it’s in fact exponential.
Exponential growth looks linear when in the very early stages.

I’m sure no one here needs reassurance VR is doing well, but it’s good to have a graph.



#2

So what’s the takeaway for social VR?
If the growth in VR in general is on a exponential growth curve. If the percentage of people out of that that want to utilize social VR is equally distributed throughout that growth. Social VR should also be on a exponential growth curve that consists of the percentage of people that want social VR.
We’re not seeing that. Either there’s something we’re missing in these numbers. Or people do not want social VR. A very good reason why people went to vrchat. They’re not using it as a social VR platform. They’re using it to have fun.


#3

Let me make an amendment.
We can look at the recent requests for chat. We can look at how it is used in other platforms like highfidelity. I personally believe the chat in this kind of applications allow people to be social at a distance. For a lot of people having direct voice chat is too much. Text chat allows them to have a conversation without directly having to engage. Probably a very good reason why social VR is not taking off the way they thought it would. People do not want to have direct conversations with people that do not know on a social VR platform. And for me this makes social VR completely pointless. If the majority of people are using text chat. Why not just use Facebook or Twitter. Facebook with avatars.


#4

I think the numbers are small and there are too many factors to draw any quantiative conclusions, so we’re stuck with qualitative analysis for now and will be for a while longer.

Take a look at this data from steam charts. (Blue is Superhot)
There is no visible trend we can relate to the increase in the number of HMDs.
But and it’s a huge but: these games have very limited replayability.

I think that for now social VR is probably more like this than we’d like. There’s only so much time you can spend in HiFi right now before you’ve seen it all (and met everyone). The only reason to stick around HiFi right now is not to consume content but to create it.

I think it will be a while before we have a critical mass of both content and users.


#5

Take a look at this comparison of Superhot VR and “The Lab”.
Very very interesting.
https://steamcharts.com/cmp/617830,450390#All


#6

Unfortunately we have a history of multiplayer virtual worlds. The majority of virtual worlds never made any Headway. People that believe in the future of these Virtual Worlds seem to take their own opinions about these Worlds and assume that everybody around them believes the same way. Including those that do not even use these kinds of platforms. Mostly people within the tech sector. This time around they seem adamant that VR will change the game so radically people will now see it the way they do. They continue to get it wrong because they do not understand the people they’re trying to sell it to. VR does not magically make this valuable for the Common Man. This current round of social VR is in a bubble getting ready to burst.


#7

http://www.vwtimeline.com/


#8

The messed up part about it is. These VR versions aren’t even compelling to those that are still using programs like Second Life. The reason is obvious if you look at my earlier post. They prefer to use text chat. For them more than likely it is too much immersion. Now people in highfidelity are begging for text chat. Which will only further its decline. Who in the world wants to be in VR and read text. You might as well be using Second Life Or Facebook.